“Everything we make pollutes. The most responsible thing we can do is to make each product as well as we know how so it lasts as long as possible.” -Yvon Chouinard
Indonesia has long been plagued by a plethora of fossil fuel-based plants to produce the bulk of their electricity. Having mountainous stockpiles of natural resources in the country leads to over reliance and exploitation, cursing the nation to stagnate as it becomes the main source of income. Burning coal lights up most houses, charges our phones, and leaves smog to dwell upon the skylights. But of course, as done by many of its neighbours and friends, Indonesia seeks greener solutions and methods, wanting to cast away its old ways. Targeting net zero emissions has become a priority over the last few years. Applications of hydroelectricity and geothermal power have begun to spring up in many Indonesian provinces, with plans for expansion on solar and wind energy to make use of the humid climate on the equator.
These renewable energy prospects are widely considered to be the solution to climate change, but what some may consider the major player in solving the crisis is still widely stigmatized and avoided. Nuclear energy has proven itself to be over twice as energy efficient compared to the burning of coal, it stands out on top with an energy capacity factor of 92.5%, the highest among all other “clean” options. (U.S Department of Energy, 2020) Will Indonesia push for the adoption of nuclear energy? Or will it be stuck behind its fear, left biting the dust of power plants?
Roadmap, Area, and Plan
Indonesia's ambition to develop its first nuclear power plant on the Muria Peninsula in Central Java reflects a long-term strategy to address the country’s growing energy demands. Initially, the project, with an estimated cost between $1.5 billion and $4.8 billion, aimed to generate up to 4,000 MW, with some projections going as high as 9,000 MW. The government planned to begin construction in 2010, with electricity generation starting by 2016 or 2017. However, recent reports from Indonesia's National Nuclear Energy Agency (BATAN) indicate a more modest beginning, proposing a 1,000 MW reactor with an estimated cost of $1.5 billion (approximately Rp13.5 trillion).
The project traces its roots to a 1989 government-initiated study focused on the Muria Peninsula, led by BATAN. This study culminated in a comprehensive feasibility analysis for a 7,000 MW plant in 1996, selecting Ujung Lemahabang as the specific site due to its tectonic stability. However, the plans were deferred indefinitely in 1997 following the passing of the National Nuclear Act. This goes to show that Indonesia had already put things in place for the project to continue, but due to unforeseen regulations and a lack of public support, the project was dropped.
Figure 1: Muria Peninsula
Source: Priswanto, et al, 2023
Nuclear Power in the Economic Perspective
As nuclear energy becomes safer and better equipped nowadays, it becomes one of the choices countries are considering, but many are still hesitant to jump over the fence. In a paper by Apergis et al., 2010, researchers tried to find a causal link between nuclear energy, carbon emissions and economic growth, contrasting with other renewable energy sources. The results proved that in the long-run nuclear energy reduces emissions, with a 1% increase in nuclear energy consumption associated with a 0.477% decrease in emissions. In addition, there was a bidirectional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth especially in countries that have high energy imports.
Though the development of nuclear energy consumption may prove to be a significant challenge due to the high upward capital costs and risks of nuclear waste, as time goes on the economic benefits of nuclear energy do stack up. Countries that are dependent on energy imports for their consumption such as Singapore and Thailand can become more self-sufficient and no longer need to spend as much to power their cities. It also improves resilience over the volatile oil and natural gas supplies and prices, avoiding the risks associated with geopolitical instability in countries in the Middle East.
In Indonesia’s case, the development of nuclear power can enhance its energy security and reduce dependencies on foreign energy by diversifying its energy mix, decreasing reliance on fossil fuel imports, and providing a stable, long-term energy supply. Nuclear energy offers a cleaner, more consistent alternative to coal and natural gas, allowing Indonesia to mitigate price fluctuations in global energy markets and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Developing domestic nuclear capabilities will provide Indonesia with greater strategic autonomy in its energy policy making it less dependent on external energy sources.
Indonesia's nuclear energy program could also impact its trade relations in various ways. It may strengthen cooperation with pro-nuclear countries like Japan, South Korea, Russia, and France, which could provide technology, infrastructure, and training, positioning Indonesia as a regional leader in nuclear energy. But tensions might arise with anti-nuclear countries like Germany and New Zealand, potentially affecting trade relations due to concerns over nuclear safety. But as a whole, a successful nuclear program would enhance Indonesia’s geopolitical leverage, increasing its influence in regional energy cooperation initiatives.
Gaining Social and People Awareness
Yet even with these benefits, the main hurdle that countries like Indonesia face is public acceptance and awareness. Events like Chernobyl and Fukushima, as well as the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki become the mainstay in people’s minds when they hear the word nuclear reactor. But what the public needs to understand is that events such as the Chernobyl incident happened mostly due to non-nuclear factors. Inadequately trained personnel, coupled with a cheaply made reactor led to its meltdown instead of the isotopes being unstable. The “nuclear effect” has always been a public concern, where the generation of nuclear power may expose people living nearby with scant levels of radiation. This fact is related to one issue that Indonesia should take into consideration about the fast spreading “not in my backyard” or NIMBY syndrome, where people are in support of nuclear energy, but are opposed to it being developed nearby.
Luckily for Indonesia, this NIMBY syndrome should not be the problem. The most recent nuclear public opinion survey was a seven-year study conducted by BATAN between 2010 to 2016. After a dip in 2011, the study revealed a consistent year-on-year increase in support for nuclear power from 2012 to 2016 – exceeding 70% from 2014 onwards and reaching 77.5% support towards the nuclear power programme in the final year of the study.
Indonesia should rather begin to expand support and public engagement through building trust. Initiatives in schools and through social media can easily reach the people. By involving trusted community leaders, and using culturally relevant messaging, policymakers can help to tailor to regional concerns too. Inclusive and interactive public forums can then boost transparency on projects. Combining digital platforms and traditional media can effectively reach diverse populations, helping to increase public acceptance and support for nuclear energy in the country.
In addition, the higher capacity for high-paying jobs sought in nuclear engineering will improve the standard of living for many. Cheap and stable energy prices will reduce uncertainties for businesses, leading to more investment and growth. Cross country collaboration can also improve the quality of human resources, and aid future development in Indonesia especially with the current bonus demography.
Indonesia’s Key Partnership Potential
While nuclear energy provides reliable, consistent power and requires less land compared to solar or wind, it may still pose risks such as radiation, accidents, and waste management, especially in earthquake-prone regions. Renewable energies like solar and wind are more sustainable and quicker to deploy, though nuclear power can serve as a stable base-load energy source. Balancing safety concerns with energy security is key for Indonesia's decision on whether nuclear or other renewable sources are more favourable. To ensure the safety of nuclear energy facilities in Indonesia, given the country's seismic activity, Indonesia can adopt advanced reactor technology.
Which is why in the effort to develop nuclear energy, there are great opportunities to be taken in collaborating with countries like Japan which are more experienced. The utilization of Light Water Reactor Technology that uses varying applications of water to simplify and secure nuclear reactor fission will most definitely improve the safety of these procedures. Pressurized and Boiling Water Reactors can also aid in maintenance and reduces the amount of radioactive waste produced. These technologies have enhanced safety measures, but challenges still remain, such as difficulty in load-following operation and the time required for restarting. Additionally, the thermal efficiency of these reactors is lower compared to thermal power generation, and the management of radioactive waste is crucial for environmental impact. Thorough site selection and seismic risk assessments should still be conducted, with strict regulatory frameworks that align with international standards.
Figure 2. Forecast of electricity supply and demand on Indonesia’s major islands
Source: Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc. from JICA (2022) “Data Collection Survey on Power Sector in Indonesia for Decarbonization”
Given that it is the most populous and has the highest CO2 emissions in ASEAN, Indonesia faces significant issues. Due to its economic expansion, it is expected to witness an increase in energy demand; in order for the region to meet its carbon neutrality targets, these problems must be resolved. The transition requires a move away from significant export businesses tied to coal, which pose a significant challenge. Linked to this, Indonesia has a greater depth of experience and infrastructure in nuclear technology than any other country in southeast Asia.
Indonesia’s partnership with Japan is critical to achieving its nuclear energy goals. Japan’s experience in safety technologies, particularly in earthquake and tsunami countermeasures, will be invaluable. Additionally, Japan’s Human Resource Development programs have already brought Indonesian students and engineers to Japan. Going forward, new initiatives will need to be aligned with Indonesia’s nuclear plans. For Japan, this partnership presents an opportunity to revitalize its nuclear sector, especially in light of the challenges faced post-Fukushima. By collaborating with Indonesia, Japan can pass on its nuclear technologies and expertise while also addressing the declining interest in nuclear studies domestically. This collaboration could open new avenues for both countries.
Where do we go next?
In the end, the development of nuclear energy in Indonesia has the potential to build the nation into an independent and stable leader of energy in the region. It will be able to provide long standing benefits in achieving clean energy goals, providing improved human capital development, and boost its economy through low energy costs. But as risks in nuclear reactor technology and challenges in public perception still withstand to this day, deliberate and careful steps must be taken to ensure that the program can outweigh its costs, especially when compared to other sources of energy. To bridge this gap then, collaboration with countries like Japan will prove to be incredibly useful in aiding the technological and geographical challenges that may arise, all while strengthening global relations with these superpowers. It is up to the government to signal the push into nuclear power, as the public will only be assured should their leaders allow them to understand and contribute to its development.
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